Tokyo

DESPITE some small signs of optimism about the United States economy, unemployment is still high, and the country seems stalled.

Time and again, Americans are told to look to Japan as a warning of what the country might become if the right path is not followed, although there is intense disagreement about what that path might be. Here, for instance, is how the CNN analyst David Gergen has described Japan: “It’s now a very demoralized country and it has really been set back.”

But that presentation of Japan is a myth. By many measures, the Japanese economy has done very well during the so-called lost decades, which started with a stock market crash in January 1990. By some of the most important measures, it has done a lot better than the United States.

Japan has succeeded in delivering an increasingly affluent lifestyle to its people despite the financial crash. In the fullness of time, it is likely that this era will be viewed as an outstanding success story.

How can the reality and the image be so different? And can the United States learn from Japan’s experience?

It is true that Japanese housing prices have never returned to the ludicrous highs they briefly touched in the wild final stage of the boom. Neither has the Tokyo stock market.

But the strength of Japan’s economy and its people is evident in many ways. There are a number of facts and figures that don’t quite square with Japan’s image as the laughingstock of the business pages:

• Japan’s average life expectancy at birth grew by 4.2 years — to 83 years from 78.8 years — between 1989 and 2009. This means the Japanese now typically live 4.8 years longer than Americans. The progress, moreover, was achieved in spite of, rather than because of, diet. The Japanese people are eating more Western food than ever. The key driver has been better health care.

• Japan has made remarkable strides in Internet infrastructure. Although as late as the mid-1990s it was ridiculed as lagging, it has now turned the tables. In a recent survey by Akamai Technologies, of the 50 cities in the world with the fastest Internet service, 38 were in Japan, compared to only 3 in the United States.

• Measured from the end of 1989, the yen has risen 87 percent against the U.S. dollar and 94 percent against the British pound. It has even risen against that traditional icon of monetary rectitude, the Swiss franc.

• The unemployment rate is 4.2 percent, about half of that in the United States.

• According to skyscraperpage.com, a Web site that tracks major buildings around the world, 81 high-rise buildings taller than 500 feet have been constructed in Tokyo since the “lost decades” began. That compares with 64 in New York, 48 in Chicago, and 7 in Los Angeles.

• Japan’s current account surplus — the widest measure of its trade — totaled $196 billion in 2010, up more than threefold since 1989. By comparison, America’s current account deficit ballooned to $471 billion from $99 billion in that time. Although in the 1990s the conventional wisdom was that as a result of China’s rise Japan would be a major loser and the United States a major winner, it has not turned out that way. Japan has increased its exports to China more than 14-fold since 1989 and Chinese-Japanese bilateral trade remains in broad balance.

As longtime Japan watchers like Ivan P. Hall and Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. point out, the fallacy of the “lost decades” story is apparent to American visitors the moment they set foot in the country. Typically starting their journeys at such potent symbols of American infrastructural decay as Kennedy or Dulles airports, they land at Japanese airports that have been extensively expanded and modernized in recent years.

William J. Holstein, a prominent Japan watcher since the early 1980s, recently visited the country for the first time in some years. “There’s a dramatic gap between what one reads in the United States and what one sees on the ground in Japan,” he said. “The Japanese are dressed better than Americans. They have the latest cars, including Porsches, Audis, Mercedes-Benzes and all the finest models. I have never seen so many spoiled pets. And the physical infrastructure of the country keeps improving and evolving.”

Why, then, is Japan seen as a loser? On the official gross domestic productnumbers, the United States has ostensibly outperformed Japan for many years. But even taking America’s official numbers at face value, the difference has been far narrower than people realize. Adjusted to a per-capita basis (which is the proper way to do this) and measured since 1989, America’s G.D.P. grew by an average of just 1.4 percent a year. Japan’s figure meanwhile was even more anemic — just 1 percent — implying that it underperformed the United States by 0.4 percent a year.

A look at the underlying accounting, however, suggests that, far from underperforming, Japan may have outperformed. For a start, in a little noticed change, United States statisticians in the 1980s embarked on an increasingly aggressive use of the so-called hedonic method of adjusting for inflation, an approach that in the view of many experts artificially boosts a nation’s apparent growth rate.

On the calculations of John Williams of Shadowstats.com, a Web site that tracks flaws in United States economic data, America’s growth in recent decades has been overstated by as much as 2 percentage points a year. If he is even close to the truth, this factor alone may put the United States behind Japan in per-capita performance.

If the Japanese have really been hurting, the most obvious place this would show would be in slow adoption of expensive new high-tech items. Yet the Japanese are consistently among the world’s earliest adopters. If anything, it is Americans who have been lagging. In cellphones, for instance, Japan leapfrogged the United States in the space of a few years in the late 1990s and it has stayed ahead ever since, with consumers moving exceptionally rapidly to ever more advanced devices.

Much of the story is qualitative rather than quantitative. An example is Japan’s eating-out culture. Tokyo, according to the Michelin Guide, boasts 16 of the world’s top-ranked restaurants, versus a mere 10 for the runner-up, Paris. Similarly Japan as a whole beats France in the Michelin ratings. But how do you express this in G.D.P. terms?

Similar problems arise in measuring improvements in the Japanese health care system. And how does one accurately convey the vast improvement in the general environment in Japan in the last two decades?

Luckily there is a yardstick that finesses many of these problems: electricity output, which is mainly a measure of consumer affluence and industrial activity. In the 1990s, while Japan was being widely portrayed as an outright “basket case,” its rate of increase in per-capita electricity output was twice that of America, and it continued to outperform into the new century.

Part of what is going on here is Western psychology. Anyone who has followed the story long-term cannot help but notice that many Westerners actively seek to belittle Japan. Thus every policy success is automatically discounted. It is a mind-set that is much in evidence even among Tokyo-based Western diplomats and scholars.

Take, for instance, how Western observers have viewed Japan’s demographics. The population is getting older because of a low birthrate, a characteristic Japan shares with many of the world’s richest nations. Yet this is presented not only as a critical problem but as a policy failure. It never seems to occur to Western commentators that the Japanese both individually and collectively have chosen their demographic fate — and have good reasons for doing so.

The story begins in the terrible winter of 1945-6, when, newly bereft of their empire, the Japanese nearly starved to death. With overseas expansion no longer an option, Japanese leaders determined as a top priority to cut the birthrate. Thereafter a culture of small families set in that has continued to the present day.

Japan’s motivation is clear: food security. With only about one-third as much arable land per capita as China, Japan has long been the world’s largest net food importer. While the birth control policy is the primary cause of Japan’s aging demographics, the phenomenon also reflects improved health care and an increase of more than 20 years in life expectancy since 1950.

Psychology aside, a major factor in the West’s comprehension problem is that virtually everyone in Tokyo benefits from the doom and gloom story. For foreign sales representatives, for instance, it has been the perfect get-out-of-jail card when they don’t reach their quotas. For Japanese foundations it is the perfect excuse in politely waving away solicitations from American universities and other needy nonprofits. Ditto for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in tempering expectations of foreign aid recipients. Even American investment bankers have reasons to emphasize bad news. Most notably they profit from the so-called yen-carry trade, an arcane but powerful investment strategy in which the well informed benefit from periodic bouts of weakness in the Japanese yen.

Economic ideology has also played an unfortunate role. Many economists, particularly right-wing think-tank types, are such staunch advocates of laissez-faire that they reflexively scorn Japan’s very different economic system, with its socialist medicine and ubiquitous government regulation. During the stock market bubble of the late 1980s, this mind-set abated but it came back after the crash.

Japanese trade negotiators noticed an almost magical sweetening in the mood in foreign capitals after the stock market crashed in 1990. Although previously there had been much envy of Japan abroad (and serious talk of protectionist measures), in the new circumstances American and European trade negotiators switched to feeling sorry for the “fallen giant.” Nothing if not fast learners, Japanese trade negotiators have been appealing for sympathy ever since.

The strategy seems to have been particularly effective in Washington. Believing that you shouldn’t kick a man when he is down, chivalrous American officials have largely given up pressing for the opening of Japan’s markets. Yet the great United States trade complaints of the late 1980s — concerning rice, financial services, cars and car components — were never remedied.

The “fallen giant” story has also even been useful to other East Asian nations, particularly in their trade diplomacy with the United States.

A striking instance of how the story has influenced American perceptions appears in “The Next 100 Years,” by the consultant George Friedman. In a chapter headed “China 2020: Paper Tiger,” Mr. Friedman argues that, just as Japan “failed” in the 1990s, China will soon have its comeuppance. Talk of this sort powerfully fosters complacency and confusion in Washington in the face of a United States-China trade relationship that is already arguably the most destructive in world history and certainly the most unbalanced.

Clearly the question of what has really happened to Japan is of first-order geopolitical importance. In a stunning refutation of American conventional wisdom, Japan has not missed a beat in building an ever more sophisticated industrial base. That this is not more obvious is a tribute in part to the fact that Japanese manufacturers have graduated to making so-called producers’ goods. These typically consist of advanced components or materials, or precision production equipment. They may be invisible to the consumer, yet without them the modern world literally would not exist. This sort of manufacturing, which is both highly capital-intensive and highly know-how-intensive, was virtually monopolized by the United States in the 1950s and 1960s and constituted the essence of American economic leadership.

Japan’s achievement is all the more impressive for the fact that its major competitors — Germany, South Korea, Taiwan and, of course, China — have hardly been standing still. The world has gone through a rapid industrial revolution in the last two decades thanks to the “targeting” of manufacturing by many East Asian nations. Yet Japan’s trade surpluses have risen.

Japan should be held up as a model, not an admonition. If a nation can summon the will to pull together, it can turn even the most unpromising circumstances to advantage. Here Japan’s constant upgrading of its infrastructure is surely an inspiration. It is a strategy that often requires cooperation across a wide political front, but such cooperation has not been beyond the American political system in the past. The Hoover Dam, that iconic project of the Depression, required negotiations among seven states but somehow it was built — and it provided jobs for 16,000 people in the process. Nothing is stopping similar progress now — nothing, except political bickering.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 6, 2012

A previous version of this article included an incorrect figure for the increase in life expectancy in Japan. It changed by 4.2  years, not 3.1.

Since my childhood days when public transport was in its infancy… i have mostly gotten around with my two feet… part of the reason for that is also because of the lack of ‘parental funding’… or maybe it was the over spending on ice-cream and tidbits? Anyway, the idea is that i spent alot of my time walking around and discovering paths, alleys, avenues, ridges that vehicles do not have access-to. I got so used to it that i began to dislike getting around places on motorised transport.

This preference has defined the way i discover a new place i travel-to on my vacations. Of course not every place i go allows me this mode of exploration. Some places have really nothing in-between to look at… and may even be detrimental to your physical well-being (think deserts).

The past 3 trips to Japan have allowed me this way of moving around, especially the last one in November 2011. The trip was a shorter one (7 days) and it was without the kiddos… just my wife and myself. There are personal reasons for this scenario which i will no go into… suffice to say, two of the reasons are, logistics and time-table.

Another mindset that came about from my habit of exploring by walking was also of Lowered Expectations.

“Second star to the right and straight on ’til morning.” – Kirk

When we were preparing for the last trip to Tokyo, i realised along the way that we were not getting much done in terms of planning the day-to-day itinerary of our trip… we just had a general vicinity in which we wanted to spend a part of the day, and let it go at that… how to get there was not a real concern…

Closer to the trip we would go maybe a little deeper into the planning and maybe look out for a ’round-tip’ fare or something like that… we also allocated alot more time for each place.

The end result was – a happier experience of visiting, exploring and actually relaxing.

Many people who visit Japan for the first time fall into the same trap of planning many, many activities and places without considering the fact that its pretty tricky if not impossible to find the exact place you are looking for without getting hopelessly lost and wasting much time and getting frustrated in the process.

That, to me, is not what i am paying thousands of hard-earned dollars for when i have a holiday.

I want to extend my sense of smell, to take in the sights of shapes and colours, i want to bring it back to me in my memories… i even stopped taking so many photographs of Japan even though i’m an avid photographer… at one point i realised i was missing out on my journey to fulfillment in my holiday.

My expectations have changed. And my trips have become more enjoyable.

I can still remember the crisp, cold morning chill at Yoyogi Park amongst the fallen blindingly yellow leaves that covered the entire pathway to Harajuku station….

That, to me is a great holiday, and my expectations have been met, and exceeded.

Here’s an excerpt:

A New York City subway train holds 1,200 people. This blog was viewed about 7,800 times in 2011. If it were a NYC subway train, it would take about 7 trips to carry that many people.

Click here to see the complete report.

shucks… i haven’t even completed my posts for last year’s trip… my bad…

http://www.dannychoo.com/post/en/26094/How+Discovering+Japan+Changed+My+Life.html

his site share tons of japan culture especially on current trends… his photos bring much of Tokyo to life… its quite an entertaining read (for me)…

“Japan to offer free airfare to 10,000 foreigners
The Japan Tourism Agency of the Japanese government is aiming to restore foreign tourism in the wake of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake (Higashi Nihon Daishinsai) disaster by offering free airfare to 10,000 overseas tourists next year. The agency will mainly accept applications online, and if an applicant’s travel plans meet the program’s criteria, the agency will sponsor the applicant’s round-trip airfare to Japan. The purpose of the program is to have participants spread the word of their travels online and, by extension, the safety of visiting Japan now. The agency is allocating 1.1 billion yen (about US$14 million) from its requested 2012 budget for the program. (animenewsnetwork.com.au, Oct 10)”

Nara station is very modern. MOS burger is situated on the 1st level. Nice place to warm up. Next to it is 7-Eleven, so no issues of grabbing some food to tide us along our long walk. Ride down the outdoor escalator, walk about 30 meters and you’ll find the Tourist Information building, an old pagoda-like structure. We were browsing for some maps when a really nice gentleman looked up from his work and bustled his way to the front of his volunteer corner of the counter. “English?” he asked.

One of my most memorable encounters for this trip. Very patient, understanding, and fluent in English. He penciled-in his notes and routes onto the black and white map and let us along our merry way. A great start for me.

Walking along the main road to the deer park we saw modern as well as some old shrines. Cars seem to park differently here – up the pavement they go! Motor traffic is much easier here… nice and slow…

We had to walk a fair bit… almost a kilometer and a half to get to the edges of the park… i suppose we got used to the dull aches in our calves due to all the shopping at Shinsaibashi… either that or it was the resignation that we had come all the way to Japan… walking is just part and parcel of a tourist’s daily activity.

We took a few snaps at the temples, passed some pagodas and shrines… and spotted some deer roaming about. Most had their horns trimmed… there were ladies selling food to feed the deer… i think it wasn’t necessary to purchase the food from them… the deer will eat practically anything.

After walking around them abit we sort of got the general do’s and don’ts…. like, keep your plastic bags out of sight…. one hungry(?) adult sneaked up behind me and grabbed the corner of my plastic tidbit/snack bag with it’s mouth and started tugging hard…! Reminds me of monkey nature… after a while they get so used to humans around them… they get bolder with each successful attempt of stealing food that we bring with us.

I like the atmosphere of parks and this one was really relaxing and peaceful. Nara park has its fill of nice trees, pebbled roads, streams and ponds and quiet benches or boulders. Coupled with perfect weather (about 8degrees C), the day passed on slowly and comfortably.

We completed a shorter version of the route the man drew out for us, and headed back to the town. Shopping a little – Nathan even considered getting a cheap PVC jacket…. the beginning of his obsessive hunt for a nice one throughout our trip….

We also dropped in to the local supermarket to satisfy our Japanese tidbit cravings… and stock up on stuff to bring back to Singapore. It started to drizzle our way back to the train station… but nothing our 300Yen umbrellas couldn’t handle…

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It is more or less central to most of the sights of interests and shopping. Swissotel stands atop Namba Nankai Station. From Namba Nankai, its a stone’s throw to Nankai Subway, and maybe 12 stone’s throw to JR Namba (Rail).

Pop out of the station at the north exit and you’ll find the beginning of the stretch that leads to Shinsaibashi sta. This ground level covered walkway is lined with all the shopping you’ll need in Osaka. There is really no point going anywhere else to fulfill your shopping bags and stomachs. I have a map somewhere of this long lane, it labels every single shop name. Just to name a few of them:- Zara, Uniqlo, WeGo, gu, Tokyu Hands, Loft (Parco), Takashimaya, Daimaru, Disney, H&M, 100Y, Krispy Kreme. Countless Food outlets delivering fastfood, sushi, udons, katsus, tako balls, okonomiyaki, bbq grills etc etc…

Walking from Namba Nankai (Takashimaya) to Shinsaibashi Sta. takes about 45 minutes, leisurely pace… if you want to explore older type of shops, carry on walking to Honmachi Sta… there are some interesting finds here as well… At Honmachi is where you’ll find Senba Outlets… (think wholesale products like fabric, dried food)… We paid Senba a visit on one of the evenings but the entire stretch along Honmachi was closed (i think it was a Sunday)…

We bought lots of our favourite Japanese goodies along Shinsaibashi… don’t skip this place…

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The Opportunity to appreciate what i was taking. For me, pictures no matter how beautifully crafted can never take the place of the Moment. Once again for this trip i am reminded that i truly enjoy the Walk, the smells, the sounds (or in Japan, the lack-of), the chill of early winter, the different architecture and its offerings be it retail or aesthetics.

The exploration of the subtle nuances of motion within a street, or the ragtag hurried motion of bodies rushing to get somewhere. The swaying of a cafe’s wrought-iron 6×20″ signboard in the breeze. The focused staring at flip phones on the trains… the slow trudge of a 60-yr-old artist’s equipment up the steps … all simply fascinating…

i didn’t want to miss all that.

so… the photographic gear took a back seat for this trip to Osaka and its surrounds, as i opened-up my senses to my environment.

The easiest way to get to Osaka city for us was the Nankai Rapi:t.. We were once again reminded of how quiet the trains are in Japan. Nary a peep from any of the passengers as we sped across the urban landscape. In less than an hour we were at Namba Subway station – following signs, we checked-in at Swissotel Nankai Osaka.

The room was nice – Swiss Advantage. Fit all four of us nicely.

The night was young! We settled the room stuff and donned our cold weather gear – Grace and i have nice 3/4 length coats we picked up from last year’s trip… Yes, we are quite ‘hiao’… but where/when else can we wear these fanciful outerwear? : ]

snow? in Hakone in November?

that’s abit too early isn’t it?

well… snow is snow and iPhone updates can’t lie… be warned… snow requires additional gear… something we are not prepared for for our trip to Osaka/Kyoto three weeks from now… even the ropeway was closed and they had to turn back… that’s no fun.

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and as usual… we’re in a slight state of disarray… most of it has been planned, routes almost all laid out… timing, pretty flexible this round…

It looks like this trip to Japan is gonna be quite different… can’t really put my finger on it… maybe its the over-nighter at Kyoto… a district teeming with culture and very, very Japanese… looking forward to the largish underground mall near our hotel (Swissotel)…

arrrgh… need to plan my work more precisely so that i can leave in peace…m
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explains a little more on why in Japan the people continue to be ‘friendly’

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….Let’s suppose that a Japanese person invites us to coffee in their house and at the end of the evening we are asked: Would you like to stay and have dinner? (that is Tatemae, it is something that it’s mandatory to say), the answer should be something like I’m not hungry but thank you very much. This can look kind of stupid and confusing to Western eyes but that’s how things work in Japan……

Full post here:

http://www.kirainet.com/english/honne-and-tatemae/

and the Rail (above ground)